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Sunday, October 15, 2017

Starters...Relieving

So, I was watching the MLB Playoffs the other day, as I usually do, and witnessed one of the strangest half innings in baseball history.  During the 5th and deciding game of the National League Division Series featuring the Chicago Cubs and the Washington Nationals, with the Nationals sporting a 4-3 lead going into the 5th inning, starting pitcher Max Scherzer was brought in to keep the the Chicago batters at bay and protect the lead.  Well, if you watched the game, you are well aware this plan did not come to fruition.  It started off well; Scherzer got two quick outs on only 6 pitches.  Then, something that has never happened in recorded baseball history - first, two singles and a double scored two runs which made the score 5-4 for the Cubs. Then all hell broke loose - an intentional walk, a swinging strikeout on a passed ball where the runner advanced, a throwing error by the catcher after the passed ball, catcher interference on the next batter, and a hit by pitch.  By the end of the craziness, the Cubs sported a 7-4 lead, scoring four runs where only the first two were earned.  It was nuts!  And it got me thinking; why do managers bring in starting pitchers as relievers in the playoffs.  They almost always come in on short rest and very rarely achieve what the manager wants them to achieve.  Starting pitchers are strange creatures.  They almost all have very specific routines between starts, usually 4 days of rest in today's five-man rotations.  Taking a starter out of this routine is almost always disastrous.  Sure, there have been some outstanding performances (Madison Bumgarner coming in in Game 7 of the 2014 World Series and pitching 5 scoreless innings on 2 days rest was ridiculous!!), but more often than not, a starter working on short rest is not the best idea.  I've gone back and researched some of these bad ideas to share with y'all, starting with......

Max Scherzer
Last week's relief performance by Scherzer wasn't his first in the playoff, it was actually his third.  And it's kind of understandable why managers keep throwing him in in close games.  He's the dictionary definition of a power pitcher.  He consistently tosses at 95-98 MPH with good movement on the ball.  He's a strikeout machine, averaging 10.2 strikeouts per 9 innings over his 10 year career. He is, in short, outstanding at what he does...but what he does is start games.  His record as a reliever in the playoffs looks OK when you consider he has a win and a hold in three appearances, his only loss coming last week.  But lets take a closer look at what he's done:

In 2011, during the American League Division Series, while playing for the Detroit Tigers, Scherzer started game 2, threw 6 scoreless innings and earned the win, tossing 104 pitches.  Only 3 days later, Scherzer was asked to come into Game 5, the deciding game, in the 6th inning.  The Tigers were beating the New York Yankees 3-1 at the time.  He had a fairly clean inning in the 6th, giving up only one hit to Jorge Posada.  Manager Jim Leyland had Scherzer go back out for the 7th where he gave up a single to Derek Jeter with one out.  He was lifted for Joaquin Benoit who gave up two singles right away to load the bases.  He then walked Mark Teixeira with two out, scoring Jeter.  That run was charged to Scherzer since Jeter was his responsibility.  Sure, Benoit caused the run, but if not for Scherzer, there would be no runner on to score.  The Tigers ended up holding the Yankees' charge back and won the game 3-2 to advance to the American League Championship Series, but Scherzer's ERA for that 1 and a third innings he pitched was 6.76.

He escaped danger there, but in 2013, the Tigers were at it again in the ALDS versus the Oakland A's.  Scherzer started Game 1, went 7 innings, giving up 2 runs and striking out 11 on 118 pitches.  He got the win that day.  In Game 4, 3 days later, he was asked to come into the game in the 7th inning of a 3-3 tie.  The first batter, Stephen Vogt, singled off of him.  After a Fielder's Choice, Vogt moved to second base.  The next batter, Coco Crisp, singled to center field, scoring Vogt.  The score was now 4-3 for the A's.  Scherzer was now in line to lose the game and the series, but his team picked him up in the bottom of the 7th, scoring two runs off of Sean Dolittle.  When Scherzer came back out for the 8th inning, he had the lead, 5-4, one that the Tigers would not relinquish for the rest of the game (the final was 8-6 Tigers).  But it wasn't easy; Scherzer proceeded to load the bases with none out in that 8th inning, but got out of it with the help of 2 strikeouts and a line drive.  He went from Detroit bum to Detroit hero in a matter of minutes, but his ERA for the game was still 4.50.

And then there was Game 5 of the NLDS of 2017 with the Washington Nationals.  Well, that 5th inning was already explained.  After tossing 98 pitchers in his start just 2 days prior, Scherzer broke down, his team broke down behind him, and the Washington Nationals were eliminated from the playoffs, Max taking the loss.  His ERA for that game, 18.00!

So, in three relief appearances in the playoffs, Max Scherzer's line looked like this:
4.1 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 3 BB, 5 K's with a 8.32 ERA
Yikes!

Steve Rogers
Steve Rogers spent his entire 13 career with the Montreal Expos, and, at the time, was my second favourite pitcher in the Majors.  (My favourite pitcher was, obviously, Dave Stieb.)  He was the best pitcher on a bad Canadian team, so I kind of had to like him, but he was very good.  He had an outstanding debut for the young team in 1973, going 10-5 with a fantastic 1.54 ERA.  This resulted in coming in second for the N.L. Rookie Of The Year Award for '73, losing to Gary Matthews of the San Francisco Giants.  He had bad years on bad teams, losing 22 games in '74 and 17 games in '76, but started getting better and better, winning at least 13 games every season from '77 to '80.  In 1981, the Expos finally started to put everything together.  Although the season was shortened and split in half because of a players' strike, the Expos were considered one of the best teams in baseball, and Rogers was one of their best pitchers.  The team made the playoffs in '81 and played the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS.  After winning Game 1, Rogers pitched a masterful Game 5, throwing a complete game 6-hit shutout to beat the phenomenal Steve Carlton, and move the Expos into the Championship Series versus the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Rogers started Game 3 of that 1981 NLCS, once again pitching as good as anybody in the league.  He won the game 3-1, pitching a complete game on 136 pitches.  The next game was won by the Dodgers, tying the series at 2 and 2.  Game 5 would decide who would go to the World Series.  The Expos started Ray Burris, who pitched a fabulous 8 innings of one-run ball.  The Dodgers countered with a pitching sensation known as Fernando Valenzuela, who also went 8 innings of one-run ball.  So the score was tied 1-1 going to the top of the 9th inning.  Burris had thrown 104 pitches, so Expos' manager Dick Williams brought in the 3 and oh Steve Rogers to keep the Dodgers from scoring.  It took Rogers 6 pitches to record the first two outs of the inning; a pop fly from Steve Garvey and a flyball from Ron Cey.  Then, on a 3-1 count, the third batter of the inning, Rick Monday, hit a solo home run to put the Dodgers up 2-1.  The entire city of Montreal, 4000 miles away, fell completely silent.  Rogers, the hero of the playoffs to that point, working on just 2 days rest, ended up losing the game for their beloved Expos in the ninth inning.  The Expos probably should have gone to the World Series that year, and would have been the first Canadian team to do so, but a starter, coming in in relief ended that dream.

Kenny Rogers
Another Rogers....weird.  Anyway, Kenny Rogers was a better than average starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers from 1989 to 1995.  He won 70, losing 51, and had a 3.88 ERA, but didn't become a full-time starter until 1993.  He signed as a free agent with the Yankees for the 1996 season, was traded to the Oakland A's for the '98 season, and then traded again mid-season to the New York Mets in 1999.  While with the Mets that year, Rogers went 5-1 in 12 starts.  The Mets made the playoffs that year, and they were happy to have the 34 year old veteran in their rotation.  But things didn't go as planned for Rogers in the 1999 playoffs.  He lost his first two starts, once to the Arizona Diamondbacks in the NLDS, and then to the Atlanta Braves in Game 2 of the NLCS.  During that NLCS against the Braves, Rogers was asked to come into an extra innings game, Game 5, on 3 days rest.  He actually did quite well, pitching the 11th and 12th innings, allowing only 1 hit.  He held the Braves back long enough for the Mets to win it in the 15th.  The Mets were still down in the series, 3 games to 2, but they had renewed life going into Game 6 in Atlanta.  

The Mets started Al Leiter who immediately gave up 5 runs while only recording one out!!  The score stayed 5-0 for the Braves until the Mets started to mount a comeback in the 6th inning.  They scored a few, the Braves countered, the Mets came back again, and by the 9th inning, the game was tied 8-8.  In the top of the 10th inning, a walk, a single, an error and a sac fly versus the Braves' John Rocker put the Mets up 9-8.  But the Braves wouldn't die, scoring their own run in the bottom of the tenth to tie the game up at 9-9.  The Mets couldn't get anything going in the 11th, going 3 up 3 down. In the bottom of the inning, Mets' manager Bobby Valentine took a chance on Kenny Rogers.  The first batter he faced, Gerald Williams, doubled to left field.  Bret Boone then sacrificed Williams to third.  One out, man on third.  The very dangerous Chipper Jones was next.  He was intentionally walked to set up a potential double play to get out of the inning.  The only danger was Williams at third, since one run would end the game, so Valentine decided to intentionally walk the next batter as well, Brian Jordan.  This way a ground ball could potentially start a double play at any base.  Andruw Jones was the next batter to face Rogers.  With bases loaded, there was no place to put Jones.  Rogers seemed to not see it that way, though, and walk Jones to bring in the winning run, ending the game and the series for the New York Mets.  Rogers took the third loss of his '99 playoffs.  As bad as this performance was, Rogers would more than make up for it with the Detroit Tigers in the 2006 playoffs when he went 3-0 and didn't give up a run in 23 innings!!

David Wells
In 2003, the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox were meeting each other for the American League title.  David Wells was making his second go-round with the Yankees, and he was having another pretty good year at the age of 40.  He finished the regular season at 15-7 in 30 starts and had only walked 22 batters all year.  When the playoffs came along, he manhandled the Minnesota Twins in Game 4 of the ALDS, pitching 8 innings of 1-run ball, helping the Yankees advance to the ALCS against the Red Sox.  Because he pitched the final game of the previous series, his first game start in the ALCS was Game 5, where he continued his brilliance.  He pitched 7 innings that game, again only allowing one run in a Yankee 4-2 win.  Now he was 2 and oh for the 2003 playoffs.  And then, Game 7 of that fantastic series came along.

The final and deciding game that would send the winner to the World Series started with two of the best pitchers ever, Pedro Martinez for Boston and Roger Clemens for New York.  Clemens, uncharacteristically gave up 4 runs, 3 of them earned, in the first three innings and was pulled to allow the Yankees' bullpen to keep them in the game.  By the end of the 7th inning, the game was close, but Boston was still holding on to a 4-2 lead.  After the first out in the top of the 8th inning, David Wells was called in to face left-handed hitter David Ortiz.  "Big Papi" was a .250 hitter against Wells to this point, but he had 2 homers in only 20 at bats.  Well, it took but one pitch for Ortiz to take Wells deep, giving the Sox a 5-2 lead in the 8th inning.  The game now looked out of reach, with Wells having only one day's rest, giving up that solo homer.  Luckily for him, and the Yankees' fans, New York came right back in the bottom of the inning to tie the game at 5-5 when Pedro gave up three quick runs while recording only one out.  The real story of the game, and the series, was the three innings that Mariano Rivera pitched after Wells.  Rivera pitched into the 11th inning, giving up 2 hits and striking out three, before Aaron Boone walked it off when he took Tim Wakefield's first pitch out of the park for the game, and series win.

Kevin Brown
The San Diego Padres came into the National League in 1969.  They had gone to the World Series in 1984 and made it to the NLDS in 1996, but everything started to look real good in 1998.  They had perennial .300 hitter Tony Gwynn, veterans Wally Joyner, Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley, a 50-home run hitter in Greg Vaughn, and one of the best starters in baseball, Kevin Brown.  Brown finished that year at 18-7 with a sterling 2.38 ERA and finished third in Cy Young voting in what would be his only year in San Diego.  The team made the playoffs on the strength of a 98-64 record and all looked promising.  In the NLDS against Houston, Brown won the first game when he pitched 8 scoreless innings and struck out a remarkable 16 batters!  Just 3 days later he pitched in Game 3, keeping his team in the game long enough to come up with the win.  He pitched 6.2 innings and gave up only 3 hits and one run.  When the next series began, the NLCS against the Atlanta Braves, Brown continued to dominate, taking Game 2 with a complete game shutout allowing only 3 hits and striking out 11.  He was on fire!  Then, Game 5.

Andy Ashby started Game 5 for the Padres.  He performed very well, giving up only 2 runs over 6 strong innings.  By the time the 6th ended, the Padres had a 4-2 lead in the game.  In the series, the Padres were up 3-1, and they wanted to put away the Braves once and for all to go on to the World Series.  After Mark Langston gave up a lead off single to Ozzie Guillen in the top of the 7th, Padres' manager, Bruce Bochy took a gamble and called for his ace.  Kevin Brown would work on 3 days rest.  Brown retired the next three batters and all looked very good.  When Brown came out for the top of the 8th inning, things started to not look as promising.  After a nine-pitch at bat, Ryan Klesko walked.  Javy Lopez then took the first pitch he saw and drove it through the left of the infield, runners on first and second with none out.  Brown induced the next batter to foul out, but the fourth batter of the inning, Michael Tucker, would end up taking a full count pitch out of the park!  Brown just gave up a three run homer and his team was suddenly losing 5-4.  He was pulled after that home run, and the Braves went on to score a couple of more in the inning, never relinquishing the lead from then on.  Kevin Brown, working on three days rest and facing only 7 batter took the loss.  Luckily, the Padres were able to win the next game, and the series, only to lose to the Yankees in the World Series.

Chris Sale
One more break down in the 2017 season happened in the ALDS versus the Boston Red Sox and the Houston Astros.  Chris Sale has been one of the best starters in baseball for the last few years.  He's a tall, lanky lefty that can get the ball up to 100 MPH at times.  He is scary good.  In fact, during the 2017 regular season, he became the first pitcher in the American League to strikeout more than 300 batters since Pedro Martinez in 1999.  He ended the 2017 season with a 17-8 record and a 2.90 ERA, but his last three starts were not great; he was 1-1 with an atrocious 4.34 ERA.  Unfortunately for the Red Sox, he carried that bad performance into the playoffs.

Sale started the first game of the ALDS and was lifted after only 5 complete innings, giving up 7 runs.  Now, the Houston Astros of 2017 are a powerhouse squad, but taking one of the best pitchers in baseball for 7 runs was quite a shocker.  Just three days later, in Game 4 of the same series, Red Sox' manager John Farrell decided to put Sale into the game in the 4th inning after starter Rick Porcello gave up a couple of runs.  Sale performed fairly well on 3 days rest, getting through his first three innings with barely a base runner.  But leaving Sale in for the top of the 8th inning would prove costly.  The Sox had the lead, 3-2, but the first Houston batter of the inning, Alex Bregman, took Sale downtown on a 2-1 pitch.  Tie game.  Sale stayed in and ended up giving up a single to Evan Gattis.  Cameron Maybin came in to run for Gattis, Craig Kimbrel came in to toss for the Sox and, after a walk and a single, Maybin scored to give the Astros the lead that they wouldn't give up.  Because Maybin/Gattis was Sale's responsibility, he took the loss, his second in 4 games.  The best pitcher in the American League proved to be human after all!



Well, there are just a few examples of why I'm against starters coming into a game in relief on short rest.  Perhaps managers will one day learn, but I highly doubt it.  There is still some great baseball to witness this year, I wouldn't be surprised if Clayton Kershaw comes into a close game in the 8th inning at some point (and he has a couple of times in the past, once good, once not so much).  It will be interesting, if nothing else...

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